MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF SECTORAL SHOCKS IN US, UK AND GERMANY: A BVAR-GARCH-M APPROACH

Gianluigi Pelloni and Wolfgang Polasek

No 253, Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 from Society for Computational Economics

Abstract: In this article a VAR-GARCH-M model for aggregate employment and employment shares is developed in order to explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shocks. Using US, UK and German quarterly data sets, the model is estimated and tested against alternative specifications. Three main issues are investigated: if volatities'shocks are significantly relevant; how much of the variation of aggregate employment growth is accounted for by reallocation shocks; how much of aggregate volatility innovation is explained by sectoral components. The analysis is carried out in a fully fledged Bayesian fashion in all its aspects: estimation, model selection and innovation accounting. In particular, model selection is carried out using Bayes factors which are exactly estimated or numerically approximated according to the nature of the proposed prior distribution. The model is estimated using a MCMC approach. The results suggest that the VAR-GARCH-M model has to be preferred to the alternative specifications. The GARCH-M component is highly "significant" thus suggesting both the presence of volatility clustering and the feedback of volatilities on aggregate employment and sectoral shares growth rates. The innovation analysis provides strong support for sectoral shocks as a triggering force of aggregate employment fluctuations. In all three countries between 45% and 55% of aggregate employment variation is accounted for by sectoral innovations. Furthermore, a fairly large amount of interaction occurs across sectors.

Date: 2000-07-05
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