A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EVOLUTION OF PORTFOLIO RULES
M. Piccioni and
Emanuela Sciubba ()
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Guido Caldarelli: Universit la Sapienza
M. Piccioni: INFM Sezione di Roma1 Universita' la Sapienza
No 334, Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 from Society for Computational Economics
In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytical results that show that, whenever a logarithmic utility maximiser enters the market, traders who either "believe" in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, vanish in the long run. Our analysis provides further insights and extends these results. We simulate a sequence of trades in a financial market and: first, we address the issue of how long is the long run in different parametric settings; second, we characterise a portfolio rule that, with some probability, dominates on logarithmic utility maximisers.
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