Solving Large and Small Models on Microcomputers

Jean-Louis Brillet ()
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Jean-Louis Brillet: INSEE

No 154, Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 from Society for Computational Economics

Abstract: In this paper we evaluate available packages designed for macroeconomic modelling. First we stress the qualities needed for building, maintaining and using an operational model, used professionally for forecasting purposes. We shall first address the global features of the process, then its different steps: gathering data, establishing equations, estimating the behavioral ones, solving the system, and presenting the results. Then, we assess the individual qualities of available packages and their suitability to meet these tasks. As simulation is probably the most often repeated task in the modelling process, we pay particular attention to the speed and versatility of the algorithm used, to its probability of reaching a solution, and to the features offered in case of trouble. The packages in the survey are AREMOS for Windows, published by WEFA, SA (version 5.1) Portable TROLL, distributed by INTEX (USA) and HendyPlan (version 1.79) SORITEC for Windows 95/NT, produced by the Sorites Group, Inc. (version 1.01). We base our tests on the 501-equation AMADEUS model, used officially by INSEE to produce its medium term forecasts. Tables give statistics for each basic modelling task: database handling, model specification, estimation, and simulation. Primarily we consider speed, but also the space taken by the associated files. Further, we evaluate the efficiency of our three options, combining the above results with more subjective observations of features provided. In our opinion, no package dominates the others. It all depends on the nature of the modelling task. Portable Troll should be the best option for the practical scientist, who wants to simulate complex models and apply complex methods. User-friendliness is not the main priority, and the display of results can be trusted to other packages. AREMOS will satisfy business economists, who probably do not need sophisticated scientific options but require quick results through user-friendly features, which should compare with the other packages they use. SORITEC is less powerful than TROLL and much less user-friendly than AREMOS, but it is also much less expensive. It presents clearly the best quality-price ratio, especially for solving medium-size problems.

Date: 1999-03-01
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