An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side

Alina Kudina

No 196, CASE Network Studies and Analyses from CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide some insights on the estimation and forecasting of Ukrainian GDP from the supply side. The aggregate output is modeled on the basis of the aggregate production function estimated from official data on 33 branches of the economy. Later, the model was enhanced by allowing for some level of disaggregation. In this attempt, production functions for major sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services etc.) were estimated separately to help account for industry peculiarities. Though the theory underlying this study is straightforward, the Ukrainian context in which it was applied assures a challenge for a researcher. The major difficulties are linked to the transitional state of the economy, characterized by structural flaws, considerable changes in statistical methodology, poor quality of data, very short time series, inconsistency of some indicators, lack of stable economic relationships and a significant shadow economy.

Keywords: GDP; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 Pages
Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sec:cnstan:0196

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