Quo vadis, Ukraine? Is there a chance for success? (Quo vadis Ukraino? Czy istnieje szansa na sukces?)

Ivan Mikloš

No 139, mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings from CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research

Abstract: If I were to say just one thing about Ukraine, I think I would have to stress it is the most underperforming country of all the countries I know. Ukraine has had, and indeed still does have, a lot of potential. In the beginning of 1990s, in 1992 to be precise, Deutsche Bank prepared an analysis of the chances for the former Soviet Union states to be reformed and developed successfully, and according to this analysis, Ukraine had the best chance among them all to be successful. We know that in reality the opposite happened, and Ukraine is in a very difficult situation now. The main reason for this situation is that when at the beginning of 1990s communist countries collapsed, the old system in Ukraine was not replaced by a new one, one of functioning market economy. It was eroded, but not exactly replaced the way it happened for example in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Baltic states. The country was captured by oligarchs, and a very strange, dysfunctional, and corrupted system was created instead./ Gdybym mia³ powiedzieæ tylko jedn¹ rzecz o Ukrainie, musia³bym podkreœliæ, ¿e jest to kraj osi¹gaj¹cy najgorsze wyniki gospodarcze spoœród wszystkich znanych mi krajów. Ukraina mia³a i nadal ma ogromny potencja³. Na pocz¹tku lat dziewiêædziesi¹tych ubieg³ego wieku, a dok³adnie w roku 1992, Deutsche Bank przygotowa³ analizê szans by³ych pañstw Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego na przeprowadzenie reform i pomyœlny rozwój. Wed³ug tej analizy najwiêksze szanse na sukces wœród nich wszystkich mia³a w³aœnie Ukraina. Jak wiemy, w rzeczywistoœci sta³o siê inaczej, i Ukraina znajduje siê teraz w bardzo trudnej sytuacji.G³ównym jej powodem jest fakt, ¿e gdy na pocz¹tku lat dziewiêædziesi¹tych upada³ komunizm, stary system na Ukrainie nie zosta³ zast¹piony przez nowy system gospodarki rynkowej. Zosta³ on os³abiony, ale nie zast¹piony przez nowy system, jak mia³o to miejsce na przyk³ad w Polsce, Czechos³owacji, na Wêgrzech czy w pañstwach ba³tyckich. Kraj zosta³ przejêty przez oligarchów i zapanowa³ w nim bardzo dziwny, dysfunkcjonalny i skorumpowany system

Keywords: Ukraine; transitional economies; privatization; energy reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L33 P2 P21 P28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2015-12
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