How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle. Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe

Kamil Pruchnik and Jakub Zowczak

No 6, CASE Working Papers from CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that.

Keywords: middle income trap; convergence; transition; transformation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B15 O43 P11 P16 P20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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