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Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behaviour: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment

Francesco Drago and Roberto Galbiati

CSEF Working Papers from Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy

Abstract: We exploit the Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006 to evaluate the indirect effects of a policy that randomly commutes actual sentences to expected sentences for 40 percent of the Italian prison population. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the residual sentence – corresponding to a month less time served in prison associated with a month of expected sentence – at the date of release on individual recidivism. Using prison, nationality and region of residence to construct reference groups of former inmates, we find large indirect effects of this policy. In particular, we find that the reduction in the individuals’ recidivism due to an increase in their peers’ residual sentence is at least as large as their response to an increase in their own residual sentence. From this result we estimate a social multiplier in crime of 2.

Keywords: Crime; Natural Experiment; Indirect Effects of Policies; Social Interactions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J01 K00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-soc
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Published in American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2012, 4(2), 199-218

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http://www.csef.it/WP/wp270.pdf (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment (2012)
Working Paper: Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment (2012)
Working Paper: Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behaviour: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment (2010) Downloads
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