Third parties and the non-monotonicity of the resource curse: Evidence from US military influence and oil value

Giacomo Battiston (), Matteo Bizzarri and Riccardo Franceschin ()
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Giacomo Battiston: University of Padova
Riccardo Franceschin: Sabanci University

CSEF Working Papers from Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy

Abstract: The relationship between resource value and conflict in a territory is affected by the interest of powerful third parties, which could deter predators. By employing widely-used measures of resource value and geologic predictors of oil presence, as well as a measures of third party presence, we examine this relationship, providing evidence of non-monotonicity in countries exposed to a powerful third party. We show that conflict probability is nonmonotonic in the value of oil in a country, in areas under US military influence. As we show, US influence in the data proxies for a higher probability of intervention in case of conflict, which may deter predator conflict in countries with large resource value.

Keywords: conflict; resource curse; third party; oil; intervention. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F51 P48 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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