Scientific Evidence and Belief Updating in Polarized Media Environments

Marco Bertoni, Paolo Falco (), Luigi Guiso (), Tullio Jappelli () and Roberto Nisticò ()
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Marco Bertoni: University of Padova, https://www.unipd.it/en
Paolo Falco: University of Copenhagen, https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/en/persons/paolo-falco/
Luigi Guiso: Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) and CEPR
Roberto Nisticò: University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and IZA, https://csef.it/people/roberto-nistico/

CSEF Working Papers from Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy

Abstract: We use a large-scale survey experiment in Italy to study how citizens update their beliefs about the effects of highly salient and politically contested policy reforms when exposed to scientific evidence. We find that while prior beliefs are often inconsistent with accurate scientific evidence, providing this evidence shifts beliefs towards accuracy. Crucially, belief updating is largely independent of the political alignment of media source conveying the information. This suggests that credible evidence can overcome partisan divides.

Keywords: Policy misperceptions; Belief updating; Media bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D83 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-17
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