The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France

Guillaume Blanc ()
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Guillaume Blanc: Simon Fraser University, https://www.guillaumeblanc.com/

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University

Abstract: This research shows that secularization accounts for the remarkably early fertility decline in France. The demographic transition, a turning point in history and an essential condition for development, began in France more than a century earlier than in any other country. Why it happened so early is one of the ‘big questions of history’ because it challenges traditional explanations and because of data limitations. Using a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available genealogies, I comprehensively document the decline in fertility and its timing with a representative sample of the population. Drawing on a wide range of sources and data, I document an important process of secularization in the eighteenth century and find a strong and robust association with the timing of the transition across regions and individuals. Finally, I explore the drivers of secularization and discuss the persistent impact of the transition on economic growth.

Date: 2026-06
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