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Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Peter Link () and Richard Tol ()

No FNU-104, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: A bioeconomic model of key fisheries of the Barents Sea is run with scenarios generated by an earth system model of intermediate complexity to assess how the Barents Sea fisheries of cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) are affected by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation arising from anthropogenic climate change. Changes in hydrographic conditions have an impact on recruitment success and survival rates which constitute a lasting effect on the stocks. The economic development of the fisheries is assessed for the 21st century, considering both adaptive and profit-maximizing harvesting strategies. Results show that a substantial weakening of the THC leads to impaired cod stock development, causing the associated fishery to become unprofitable in the long run. Simultaneous improvements in capelin stock development help the capelin fishery, but are insufficient to offset the losses incurred by the cod fishery. A comparison of harvest strategies reveals that in times of high variability in stock development, profit maximization leads to more stable economic results of these fisheries than the adaptive fishing strategy.

Keywords: Fisheries; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q22 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2006-05, Revised 2006-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
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