Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Alvaro Calzadilla (), Tingju Zhu (), Katrin Rehdanz, Richard Tol and Claudia Ringler

No FNU-170, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Agriculture; Sub-Saharan Africa; Integrated Assessment Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 N57 Q17 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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