THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

Jacqueline Hamilton, David Maddison and Richard Tol

No FNU-36, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change. The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase fast as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. The effects of climate change, however, are small compared to the baseline projections.

Keywords: International tourism; climate change impacts; carbon dioxide emissions; scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2004-01, Revised 2004-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Published, Climate Research, 29, 255-268

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgc:wpaper:36

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