Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary

Kate Lonsdale, Thomas Downing, Robert Nicholls, Dennis Parker, Nassos Vafeidis, Richard Dawson and Jim Hall

No FNU-77, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a scenarion of rapid rise in sea-level due to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could produce a global rise in sea-level of 5 to 6 metres. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to one interviews and a one-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. Through these interactions we hoped to uncover plausible responses to the scenario and identify potential weaknesses in our current flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. By undertaking this exploratory exercise we hoped to find out whether this was a feasible way to deal with such a low probability but high consequence scenario. It was the process of finding a solution that interested us rather than the technical merits of one solution over another. We were not intending to produce definitive set of recommendations on how to respond but to gain insights into the process of making a decision, specifically what influences it and what assumptions are made.

Keywords: Sea level rise; London (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2005-05, Revised 2005-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Forthcoming, Climatic Change

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