Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

Christine Roeckmann, Uwe Schneider (), Michael St.John and Richard Tol

No FNU-84, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.

Keywords: Baltic cod; climate change; environmental variability; reproductive volume; population dynamics; management; policy; age-structured model; temporal marine reserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2005-08, Revised 2005-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published, Natural Resources Modelling, 20 (2), 223-262

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