EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities

Piotr Dybka ()

No 2020-053, Working Papers from Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis

Abstract: In this paper the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging (DMA) algorithm is used to establish the key determinants of the nominal exchange rates of 5 currencies: CAD, EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY against the US dollar. My results indicate that the importance of the variables in the exchange rate forecasting can substantially differ in time. Even among the set of developed countries, there are visible differences in the set of key determinants of the exchange rate. However, the lagged value of the exchange rate remains always an important variable indicating significant persistence in the exchange rate time series. Furthermore, the PPP rate, Terms of Trade (TOT) and output per worker are also variables that have high Posterior Inclusion Probabilities among the analyzed countries. My results show that macroeconomic fundamentals are not leading indicators of the exchange rates. As a result, to outperform the random walk (naive) forecast of the exchange rate using the macroeconomic fundamentals, a good quality of the forecast of the explanatory variables is required.

Keywords: Exchange rates; forecasting; Bayesian Model Averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C33 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documents/WorkingPapersKAE/WPKAE_2020_053.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2020053

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jakub Muck ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-11
Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2020053