Elemental Tests of the Traditional Rational Voting Model

Darren Grant () and Michael Toma ()
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Michael Toma: Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University

No 709, Working Papers from Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business

Abstract: A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bellcurved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus, this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data.

Date: 2007-10
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Journal Article: Elemental tests of the traditional rational voting model (2008)
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