A Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Taipei Seismic Hazards: An Application of HAZ-Taiwan with its Pre-processor and Post-processor

Daigee Shaw (), Chin-Hsiung Loh, Chin-Hsun Yeh, Wen-Yu Jean and Yen-lien Kuo
Additional contact information
Chin-Hsiung Loh: National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering
Chin-Hsun Yeh: National Center for Research on Earthquake engineering
Wen-Yu Jean: National Center for Research on Earthquake engineering
Yen-lien Kuo: Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, https://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/

No 04-A009, IEAS Working Paper : academic research from Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

Abstract: This paper employs probabilistic risk analysis to estimate exceedance probability curves, average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss (PML) for seismic hazards. It utilizes and event-driven loss estimation model, HAZ-Taiwan, and develops its pre-processing and post-processing software modules. First, the pre-processingmodule establishes a set of hazard-consistent scenarios. Then, the HAZ-Taiwan modelextimates hazards, vulnerabilities and economic losses for each scenario. Finally, the aggregate and occurrence exceedance probability curves for losses and theirconfidence intervals are simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation in thepost-processing module. The methodology is then applied to analyze seismic risks in Taipei. It is found that the exceedance probability of an aggregate loss of NT$40.398 billion is 0.001. This amount of loss is approximately 2.78% of the total stock of buildings in Taipei. Its 5%-95% confidence intervals range from NT$37.41-43.12 billion. The average annual loss of buildings in Taipei is NT$1.06 billion r approximately 0.07% of the total stock.

Keywords: probabilistic risk analysis; Hazard analysis; vulnerability analysis; exceedance probability curve; HAZ-Taiwan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2004-03
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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