Testing the integration of political discourses into the socio-technical map of urban mobility

Gerardo Marletto and Chiara Ortolan

No 17_2, Working Papers from SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica

Abstract: With this paper we want to verify if the integration of political discourses into the socio-technical map (ST-map) will help to achieve a better understanding of the past, present and future innovation processes affecting the societal function of urban mobility. We test the modified ST-map in two cases: 1) The revision of the 2030 scenarios of urban mobility that were proposed in Marletto (2014), and 2) The retrospective analysis of the Freiburg (D) case. The two tests prove that with the integration of political discourses the ST-map improves its ability to represent the dynamics of urban mobility (both past and future). In particular, the modified ST-map shows that there is a mutual dependence between the actual policy approach to urban mobility, and the ability of competing networks of influencing the arena where different political discourses face each other. Moreover, it is apparent that more sustainable practice may eventually emerge only if a new network of innovators is able to scale up a cumulative causation process involving legitimacy, empowerment and supporting policies. The paper aims at revising a former Cost Benefit Analysis exercise, produced just two years after line opening, in the light of the changed conditions. In particular, applying a similar methodology and estimating on the basis of third-party sources the current Origin-Destination demand matrix, we will recalculate the economic feasibility indicators. The cost-benefit analysis gives a marginally positive result in the most-likely case. To the contrary, extrapolating pre-competition trends without competition, gives a very negative result. In fact, we show that travel time benefits are a fraction of the cost. The largest benefits comes from the new demand, which in turn comes from increased frequency, from the introduction of mixed traditional/high-speed services and from the fall in prices due to the entrance of NTV.

Date: 2017
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