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Bayesian Forecast Intervals for Inflation and Unemployment Rate in Romania

Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu)

Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) from St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies

Abstract: This paper brings as novelty for the Romanian literature the construction of Bayesian forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in the period 2004-2017. Only few intervals included the registered values on the variables, but in the last stage when all the prior information has been used, the forecast intervals are very short. On the other hand, a novelty for the international literature is brought in this research by proposing a Bayesian technique for assessing prediction intervals in a better way than in the traditional approach that uses statistic tests.

Keywords: forecast interval; Bayesian interval; inflation; unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-tra
Date: 2017-05, Revised 2017-05
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https://www.uni-sofia.bg/index.php/eng/content/dow ... file/BEP-2017-06.pdf First version, 2017 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-06

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