Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects
Ivelin Elenchev and
Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) from St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies
The present paper develops three models that help predict the success rate and attainable investment levels of online crowdfunding ventures. This is done by applying standard economic theory and machine learning techniques from computer science to the novel sector of online crowd-based micro-financing. In contrast with previous research in the area, this paper analyzes transaction-level data in addition to information about completed crowdfunding projects. This provides an unique perspective in the ways crowdfinance ventures develop. The models reach an average of 83% accuracy in predicting the outcome of a crowdfunding campaign at any point throughout its duration. These fundings prove that a number of product and project specific parameters are indicative of the success of the venture. Subsequently, the paper provides guidance to capital seekers and investors on the basis of these criteria, and allows participants in the crowdfunding marketplace to make more rational decisions.
Keywords: microfinance; entrepreneur finance; crowdfunding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M20 G24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-ent, nep-pay and nep-ppm
Date: 2017-11, Revised 2017-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.uni-sofia.bg/index.php/eng/content/dow ... file/BEP-2017-09.pdf First version, 2017 (application/pdf)
Working Paper: Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-09
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) from St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Teodor Sedlarski ().