Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Susan Sayre, Rachael Goodhue and Leo Simon

No 2012-01, Working Papers from Smith College, Department of Economics

Abstract: Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

JEL-codes: P48 Q25 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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