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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

Charlotte Christiansen, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind

No 2010-01, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank

Abstract: We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions, including more currencies, longer samples, transaction costs, international stock indices, and other proxies for volatility and liquidity. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the carry trade performance is better explained by its time-varying systematic risk that magnifies in volatile markets-suggesting a partial explanation for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity puzzle.

Keywords: carry trade; factor model; FX volatility; liquidity; smooth transition regression; time-varying betas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G11 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2010
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2009) Downloads
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