Ben Bernanke vs. Janet Yellen: Exploring the (a)symmetry of individual and aggregate inflation expectations
Nikola Mirkov () and
Andreas Steinhauer ()
No 2015-10, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank
We conducted a simple, anonymous survey at the beginning of 2014, asking around 200 economists worldwide to reveal their inflation expectations, conditional on either Ben Bernanke or Janet Yellen being the chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. We use the change in the Fed's leadership to focus attention on the difference in conditional expectations, while we are interested in the distribution of those expectations. The outcome of the survey shows that a significant share of respondents revealed asymmetric inflation expectations and that the deviation from symmetry is sizeable. Nonetheless, individual asymmetry in forecasts appears to be irrelevant for the aggregate distribution, as the number of respondents who factor in excess inflation broadly matches the number of those who gave more weight to disinflationary outcomes. The aggregate distribution we obtain is largely comparable to the outcome of the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2014.
Keywords: inflation expectations; subjective probability distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2 ... _paper_2015_10.n.pdf (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2015-10
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Swiss National Bank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Enzo Rossi ().