Inverting Bernoulli's theorem: the original sin
Xavier De Scheemaekere () and
No 08-029.RS, Working Papers CEB from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles
This paper sheds a new light on the gap between a priori and a posteriori probabilities by concentrating on the evolution of the mathematical concept. It identifies the illegitimate use of Bernoulli’s law of large numbers as the probabilists’ original sin. The resulting confusion on the mathematical foundation for statistical inference was detrimental to Laplace’s definition of probability in terms of equi-possible outcomes as well as to von Mises’ frequentist approach. On the opposite, Kolmogorov’s analytical axiomatization of probability theory enables a priori and a posteriori probabilities to relate to each other without contradiction, allowing a consistent mathematical specification of the dual nature of probability. Therefore, only in Kolmorogorov’s formalism is statistical inference rigorously framed.
Keywords: Probability; Bernoulli’s Theorem; Mathematics; Statistics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N01 B31 C65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-his and nep-hpe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Published by: Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB)
Downloads: (external link)
https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/14571/1/rou-0194.pdf rou-0194 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sol:wpaper:08-029
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://hdl.handle.ne ... ulb.ac.be:2013/14571
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers CEB from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Benoit Pauwels ().