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Migration, Forced Displacement and Fertility during Civil War: A Survival Analysis

Philip Verwimp (), Davide Osti () and Gudrun Ostby

No 17-016, Working Papers CEB from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles

Abstract: The civil war in Burundi (1993-2005) caused a massflow of refugees into neighboring countries as well as a large number of internally displaced persons. In fact, half of the population was displaced at least once during the course of the conflict. The aim of this study is to explore to what extent migration during the conflict impacted fertility outcomes. Using retrospective data on birth and residential histories at the mother-year level from a nationally representative survey conducted in August 2002, we examine the impact of war and migration on the probability of first births and on birth spacing. A parametric survival regression model is adopted to predict the hazard of having an additional child on a sample of about 4,500 Burundian women. Our results suggest that the risk of an additional pregnancy is higher in years of forced displacement of the mother, whereas it is lower in the case of residence in the forced displacement site. We do not find a statistically significant effect different from no migration in the years that the women voluntary migrated. Fertility however sharply increases once the women resided in the migration site.

Keywords: fertility; forced displacement; migration; civil war; Burundi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 C41 J13 N37 N47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 p.
Date: 2017-05-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dem and nep-mig
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