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A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, MacroEconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections

Nick Jagger ()
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Nick Jagger: SPRU, University of Sussex; University of Brighton

SPRU Working Paper Series from SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School

Abstract: This paper is based around outlining and illustrating the use of a co-evolutionary method for long-term macro-economic forecasting. The paper includes economic forecasts for the UK to 2060 using a novel approach based on Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA). The forecasts are based on projections of the working-age population and their educational attainment, as well as building on the historic trends of these variables. The variables forecasted are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and productivity, based on historic time-series dating back to 1856, and their interactions with the projected variables. Other longterm forecasts for the UK are examined and the important impact of demographic change and plateauing educational attainment is assessed. Additionally, the power of the new MSSA forecasting technique proposed here is illustrated.

Keywords: Co-evolutionary forecasting; Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis; Demographics; Educational Attainment; Long-term macro-economic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B15 B22 C14 C53 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-for
Date: 2018-10
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