Forward- and Backward Looking Models for Norwegian Export Prices

Ingvild Svendsen ()
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Ingvild Svendsen: Statistics Norway, https://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/ansatte

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: The Norwegian export price for an aggregated commodity is modelled assuming price-setting behaviour. The focus is on the choice between backward- and forward looking models. The dynamics is modelled according to three different approaches; a backward looking error correction model and two forward looking models where rational expectations are assumed. The first forward looking model is derived from a multiperiod quadratic loss function imposing backward-forward restrictions on the parameters. The results from this specification are not encouraging. We then allow data to choose the lead structure, resulting in a less restrictive forward looking model. The backward- and forward looking models are compared to an estimated cointegrating vector for the long-run solution. An encompassing test on the backward- and forward looking model indicates that further research should look for a model that encompasses both of them.

Keywords: Export prices; Imperfect competition; Multiperiod loss function; Rational expectations; Error correction models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 D84 F12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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