The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate

Hilde Bjørnland () and Håvard Hungnes

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long run equilibrium relationship is embedded in a parsimonious representation for the exchange rate. The structural exchange rate representation is stable over the sample and outperforms a random walk in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise at one to four horizons. Ignoring the interest rate differential in the long run, however, the structural model no longer outperforms a random walk.

Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate; cointegration VAR; out-of-sample forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C53 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fin, nep-ifn and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ssb:dispap:340

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