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The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?

Eirik Sagen () and Finn Roar Aune ()

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: We analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price in Western Europe is likely to be higher in 2010 than the average historical price the last 15 years, even in an optimistic supply scenario. We find only modest effects on both average natural gas producer prices and trade patterns of radical changes in supply volumes. However, there are significant country specific differences, primarily related to the reliance on Russian gas exports and the use of gas fired power generation

Keywords: Electricity; energy modeling; natural gas; liberalized energy markets; LNG; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F17 Q31 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec and nep-mic
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