Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area

Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham ()
Additional contact information
Dinh Quang Pham: Statistics Norway, https://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/ansatte

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: We analyse empirical errors observed in historical population forecasts produced by statistical agencies in 14 European countries since 1950. The focus is on forecasts for three demographic variables: fertility (Total Fertility Rate - TFR), mortality (life expectancy at birth), and migration (net migration). We inspect forecast bias and forecast accuracy in the historical forecasts, as well as the distribution of the errors. Finally, we analyse for each of the three variables correlation patterns in forecast errors across countries and, for mortality, the correlation between errors for men and women. In the second part of the report we use time series model to construct prediction intervals to 2050 for the TFR, the life expectancy for men and women, and net migration in 18 European countries. GARCH models are used for fertility and mortality, while net migration is modelled as an autoregressive process

Keywords: stochastic population forecast; empirical forecast errors; prediction intervals; GARCHmodels; TFR; life expectancy; net migration; EEA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp386.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ssb:dispap:386

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by L Maasø ().