Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations

Håvard Hungnes

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: The paper derives a test for equal predictability of multi-step-ahead system forecasts that is invariant to linear transformations. The test is a multivariate version of the Diebold-Mariano test. An invariant metric for multi-step-ahead system forecasts is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g., as in levels or differences; or log-levels or growth rates). The test is used in comparing quarterly multi-step-ahead system forecasts made by Statistics Norway with similar forecasts made by Norges Bank.

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasts; Econometric models; Forecast performance; Forecast evaluation; Forecast comparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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