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Real GDP and the Purchasing Power of Provincial Output

Ryan Macdonald

Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series from Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of import and export price changes on economic welfare in Canada, and in each of the provinces. It examines how terms of trade shifts and fluctuations in the ratio of traded to non-traded goods prices affect the purchasing power of domestic production. Terms of trade shifts are shown to have a larger impact in the short-run. Moreover, the paper shows that failing to account for terms of trade shifts, when analysing macroeconomic data, can lead to misinterpretations about the sources of growth or decline in consumption, investment and imports. The magnitude and direction of terms of trade fluctuations, and their impacts, vary by province and over time. Changes in commodity prices are shown to have important effects. The effect of terms of trade shifts is largest in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, while Manitoba is relatively unaffected.

Keywords: International trade; Economic accounts; Gross domestic product; Income and expenditure accounts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mac
Date: 2007-07-24
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:stc:stcp5e:2007046e

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