Canadian employment trends in the era of generative artificial intelligence: Early evidence

Tahsin Mehdi and Marc Frenette

Economic and Social Reports from Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) holds the potential to transform the nature of work, and its ability to replace human labour remains a central concern. This study highlights recent labour market trends, distinguishing jobs potentially more exposed to and less complementary with AI from other jobs. From November 2022—when generative AI applications started gaining traction following the mass availability of ChatGPT—to December 2025, employment generally grew regardless of potential occupational exposure to and complementarity with AI. However, job growth varied across worker characteristics. Younger employees and those less educated generally saw weaker job growth over this period. Coding-intensive professions (e.g., software engineers and web designers) grew at a similar rate as other jobs. However, gains in coding-intensive jobs were concentrated among workers aged 30 to 49, while the number of coding professionals younger than 30 stagnated. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2025, job vacancies in occupations potentially more exposed to and less complementary with AI decreased at a similar rate as vacancies in occupations potentially less exposed to AI. Jobs potentially more exposed to AI regardless of complementarity are more likely to be higher-paying, associated with workplace pension plans, full-time and permanent. Thus, AI-driven layoffs could potentially involve the loss of high-quality jobs. Some of the results reflect longer-term trends predating the widespread availability of AI. It is unclear whether more recent trends reflect the advent of AI, other economic factors such as labour market adjustments after the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid demographic shifts, recent trade tensions with the United States or a combination of factors that are shaping the Canadian economic landscape.

Keywords: employment trends; generative artificial intelligence; early evidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J23 M21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-28
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202600100003e

DOI: 10.25318/36280001202600100003-eng

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