Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth
Grant Allan ()
No 1214, Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics
Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governmentsâ€™ fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of â€œrelativeâ€ growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECDâ€™s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.
Keywords: macroeconomic forecast evaluation; relative forecast accuracy; OECD. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 O47 E02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
Working Paper: Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:str:wpaper:1214
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Kirsty Hall ().