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Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya

Marco Alfano () and Joseph-Simon Gorlach
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Marco Alfano: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Joseph-Simon Gorlach: Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, University College London

No 1904, Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper explores how terrorism alters human capital investment by affecting expectations. Using different estimators, we identify a negative causal effect of terrorism on Kenyan primary school enrolment and attendance. Among these, we exploit al-Shabaab's revenue streams and position in the al-Qaeda network to predict attacks. To isolate the significant contribution of indirect mechanisms|like expectation we use fi nely geo-coded data on children and their closest schools as well as border discontinuities in educational provision, combined with media and attitudinal data. Moreover, we evaluate the degree and effect of the discrepancy between objective and subjective expectations in a structural model.

Keywords: terrorism; education; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 I21 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
Date: 2019-03
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