Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis
Himanshu Amarawickrama () and
Lester Hunt
No 118, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) from Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey
Abstract:
This study estimates electricity demand functions for Sri Lanka using six econometric techniques. It shows that the preferred specifications differ somewhat and there is a wide range in the long-run price and income elasticities with the estimated long-run income elasticity ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 and the long run price elasticity from 0 to –0.06. There is also a wide range of estimates of the speed with which consumers would adjust to any disequilibrium, although the estimated impact income elasticities tended to be more in agreement ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. Furthermore, the estimated effect of the underlying energy demand trend varies between the different techniques; ranging from being positive to zero to predominantly negative. Despite these differences the forecasts generated from the six models up until 2025 do not differ significantly. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in econometrically estimated models used for forecasting. However, by the end of the forecast period in 2025 there is a variation of around 452MW in the base forecast peak demand; which, in relative terms for a small electricity generation system like Sri Lanka’s, represents a considerable difference.
Keywords: Developing Countries; Electricity Demand Estimation; Sri Lanka (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2007-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (55)
Published in Energy 33(5) 2008, pp. 724-739. (Revised Version)
Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/seeds/SEEDS118.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sur:seedps:118
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) from Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mona Chitnis ().