Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand

Zafer Dilaver () and Lester Hunt

No 131, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) from Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey

Abstract: This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38 respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of the implementation of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of energy market structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity consumption will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.

Keywords: Turkish Residential Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Future Scenarios; Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2010-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Energy Policy, 39(6), 2011, pp. 3117-3127. (Revised Version)

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https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/seeds/SEEDS131.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sur:seedps:131

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