Modelling Saudi Arabia Behaviour in the World Oil Market 1976-1996

Nourah Al-Yousef
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Nourah Al-Yousef: Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey

No 93, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) from Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey

Abstract: The importance of Saudi Arabia as a large producer of oil can not be ignored. In the Seventies, OPEC determined the price of Abrabian Light as a reference and the members of OPEC set the price of their oil, selling as much as they wanted, while Saudi Arabia was able to maintain its role as the residual supplier and acted as the swing producer adjusting its output to stabilise the price of oil. However, the expansion of non-OPEC supply and other factors influencing the world oil in the Eighties led Saudi Arabia to adopt the role of market sharing producer. Two models are tested using cointegration tests (Johansen procedures) and appropriate time series of oil price and product data are used. Each time series is tested for stationarity and seasonality.

Pages: 64 pages
Date: 1998-06
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