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Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions

Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis (), Marjan Hofkes (), Onno Kuik () and Richard Tol ()

Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School

Abstract: We use the latest version of the GTAP multi-sector / multi-country model to assess the impact of sea level rise on transport infrastructure. Using DIVA output as input, our results indicate that Global GDP is depressed, but European GDP is less affected compared to the rest of the world. Sea level rise as projected in the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario causes global welfare losses of USD 61 billion in 2050. These losses are mainly caused by productivity losses in sea transport. We show that globally the welfare losses exceed the direct transportation cost changes by 30%, with substantial regional variation. Developed regions adjust better to increases in transportation costs than developing regions. Through transport, sea level rise causes significant changes to the global economy.

Keywords: climate change; computable general equilibrium; CGE; sea level rise; transportation disruptions; water transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tre
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