The macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Lindsay Shutes

Economics PhD Theses from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School

Abstract: Almost one in five South Africans of working age is HIV positive. In 2006, approximately 320,000 South Africans died of AIDS. Early research into the economic impact of HIV/AIDS focused on the impact of the disease on the quantity of labour available. More recent work identifies the negative impact of HIV/AIDS on the process of human capital accumulation as likely to damage the long term performance of the economy and threaten decades of investment in human capital in Africa. The macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS is examined in this thesis using a model of human capital accumulation with endogenous HIV/AIDS effects, estimated using a cross entropy approach. Education and labour transition matrices are presented for South Africa for 2000 to 2005.

Date: 2009
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