Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area

Michal Marencak () and Giang Nghiem ()
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Michal Marencak: National Bank of Slovakia
Giang Nghiem: Leibniz University Hannover

No WP 10/2025, Working and Discussion Papers from Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia

Abstract: Using ECB Consumer Expectations Survey microdata, we construct household-level inflation measures for the euro area. Four findings emerge. (1) Personal inflation varies systematically across households, countries, and over time, with disparities widening markedly during the 2022–23 inflation surge. (2) Greater dispersion in personal inflation is closely associated with stronger disagreement in both perceived and expected inflation. (3) A one-percentage-point increase in personal inflation raises one-year-ahead inflation expectations by up to 0.2 percentage points. (4) Personal inflation affects consumption primarily through inflation expectations channel.

JEL-codes: D30 D84 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2025-08
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