The Green Transition and Households’ Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Tjantana Barro (), Michal Marencak () and Giang Nghiem ()
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Tjantana Barro: University of Konstanz
Michal Marencak: National Bank of Slovakia
Giang Nghiem: Leibniz University Hannover

No WP 4/2026, Working and Discussion Papers from Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia

Abstract: We provide causal evidence that the economic framing of a structural policy changes households’ macroeconomic expectations. In a randomized survey experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel of Households, all participants first read an identical neutral primer about climate policy measures and are then randomly assigned to receive no further text or an additional narrative interpreting the policy primarily as a negative demand or supply shock. Both narratives reduce expected growth. However, only the supply-shock framing raises inflation expectations, while the demand-shock framing does not reduce them—contrary to a simple demand-channel benchmark. These findings suggest that communication that makes different macro channels salient can materially shape expectations, with implications for economic policy communication during structural transitions.

JEL-codes: C33 D84 E31 E52 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2026-03
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