EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

A Note on Long Horizon Forecasts of Nonlinear Models of Real Exchange Rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006)

Daniel Buncic

No 2008-02, Discussion Papers from School of Economics, The University of New South Wales

Abstract: We show that long horizon forecasts from the nonlinear models that are considered in the study by Rapach and Wohar (2006) cannot generate any forecast gains over a simple AR(1) specification. This is contrary to the findings reported in Rapach and Wohar (2006). Moreover, we illustrate graphically that the nonlinearity in the forecasts from the ESTAR model is the strongest when forecasting one step-ahead and that it diminishes as the forecast horizon increases. There exists, therefore, no potential whatsoever for the considered nonlinear models to outperform linear ones when forecasting far ahead. We also illustrate graphically why one step-ahead forecasts from the nonlinear ESTAR model fail to yield superior predictions to a simple AR(1).

Keywords: PPP; regime modelling; nonlinear real exchange rate models; ESTAR; forecast evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 C53 F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2008-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-ifn
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://wwwdocs.fce.unsw.edu.au/economics/Research/WorkingPapers/2008_02.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: A note on long horizon forecasts of nonlinear models of real exchange rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006) (2008) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-02

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from School of Economics, The University of New South Wales Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Hongyi Li ().

 
Page updated 2024-02-22
Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-02