Time Varying Determinants of Cross-Country Growth

Rachida Ouysse () and Chris Nicholas
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Chris Nicholas: The University of New South Wales

No 2008-03, Discussion Papers from School of Economics, The University of New South Wales

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the time variation in the short term growth determinants through five subperiod cross sectional growth regressions. We also use a panel regression to analyze the long term pervasive drivers of cross-country growth. A fully Bayesian approach in the spirit of Fernandez, Ley and Steel (2001) is used to determine the likely candidates for the best approximating growth model. Although the findings support the optimistic view that growth regression has empirical merit, there is evidence of time variation of the growth determinants. Some of the variables like, Ratio of Real Domestic Investment to GDP, Real GDP per capita, and Sub-Saharian African Dummy emerge as long term growth indicators, while Fertility Rate loses its historical status as ”core growth” factor. The findings also show that the convergence effect of Real GDP per Capita happens during the middle subperiods. Short run analysis shows evidence of a delay in the growth rate response to the initial conditions followed by an acceleration effect before hitting a plateau.

Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2008-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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