Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data

Laurent Pauwels and Andrey Vasnev

No 2013-05, Working Papers from University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics

Abstract: This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index, as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead out-of-sample monthly forecast utilising the well-established coincident indicators and yield curve models, allowing for dynamics and real-time data revisions. Forecast combinations use logscore and quadratic-score based weights, which change over time. This paper finds that forecast accuracy improves when combining the probability forecasts of both the coincident indicators model and the yield curve model, compared to each model's own forecasting performance.

Date: 2013-03
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http://hdl.handle.net/2123/8965

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data (2014)
Working Paper: Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data (2013)
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