Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure, and Industry Dynamics in Europe

Raphael Auer, Kathrin Degen () and Andreas Fischer ()
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Kathrin Degen: University of Lausanne, http://www.unil.ch

No 11.02, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee

Abstract: What is the impact of import competition from low-wage countries (LWCs) on inflationary pressure in Europe? This paper examines whether labor- intensive exports from emerging Europe, Asia, and other global regions have a uniform impact on producer prices in Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In a panel covering 110 (4-digit) NACE industries from 1995 to 2008, instrumental variable estimations predict that LWC im- port competition is associated with strong price effects. More specifically, when LWC exporters capture 1% of European market share, producer prices decrease by about 3%. In contrast, no effect is present for import competition from low-wage countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Decomposing the mechanisms that underlie the LWC price effect on European industry, we show that import competition has a pronounced effect on average productivity with only a muted effect on wages or margins. Owing to the exit of firms and the increase in productivity, LWC import competition is shown to have substantially reduced employment in the European manufacturing sector.

Pages: 58 pages
Date: 2011-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-eec, nep-eur and nep-lab
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe (2013)
Working Paper: Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure,and Industry Dynamics in Europe (2011)
Working Paper: Globalization and inflation in Europe (2010)
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