Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

Sylvia Kaufmann

No 22.02, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee

Abstract: We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts implied by quarterly forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic.

Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2022-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-his and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwend ... g_papers/wp-2202.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
None

Related works:
Working Paper: Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:szg:worpap:2202

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee

The price is Free.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by library ().