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An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models

Mala Raghavan ()

No 2019-01, Working Papers from University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics

Abstract: The paper analyses the importance of supply versus demand shocks on the global oil market from 1974 to 2017, using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive mov- ing average (SVARMA) model. The superior out-of-sample forecasting performance of the reduced form VARMA compared to VAR alternatives advocates the suitabil- ity of this framework. We specifically account for the changes in the oil market over three distinctive sub-periods - pre moderation, great moderation and post moderation periods, to provide a means of identifying the changing nature of shock transmission mechanism across times. The findings shed some light on the effects of supply versus demand related oil shocks under different economic environment. Oil supply shocks explain large fraction of the movements in the global oil market in the pre and post moderation periods, i.e. during the slower economic growth periods. The importance of global activity shock on oil price movements is obvious during the 2003-2008 boom period. The oil specific shock has an interesting transmission path on the global eco- nomic activity, where the global activity responded positively and negatively during the global economic expansion and contraction respectively, emphasising the precautionary nature of the shock.

Keywords: VARMA models; oil price shocks; global oil market; impulse responses; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mac
Date: 2019
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Published by the University of Tasmania. Discussion paper 2019-01

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