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Cekirdek Enflasyon Gostergelerinin Kullanimi Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme

Oguz Atuk (), Utku Ozmen () and Necati Tekatli

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’de kullanilan cekirdek enflasyon gostergelerinin bir ozeti sunulmus ve bu gostergelerin ekonomik ve istatistiksel ozellikleri kisaca analiz edilmistir. Ayrica bu cekirdek enflasyon gostergelerinin performanslari, serilerin bilgilendirme ve tuketici enflasyonunu tahmin etme gucunu olcmek icin yaygin olarak kullanilan uc kritere gore degerlendirilmistir. Ele alinan butun cekirdek gostergelerin belirli kriterleri karsiladigi bulgulanmakla birlikte, istatistiksel yontemlere dayanarak olusturulan SATRIM endeksinin onculeyici gucunun diger gostergelere kiyasla daha yuksek oldugu bulunmustur. Dinamik faktor modellerine dayali olarak turetilen Fcore gostergesinin ise diger gostergelere kiyasla ortalama enflasyona daha yakin seyrettigi gozlenmektedir. H ve I gostergelerinin avantaji ise kamuoyu tarafindan kolayca takip edilebilmeleri ve kolayca hesaplanabilmeleridir. Her gostergenin farkli avantajlari oldugundan ve farkli tipte soklara tepki verdiginden, alternatif gostergelerin kullanilmasinin faydali olacagi, dolayisiyla herhangi bir gostergenin yegane cekirdek enflasyon olarak nitelendirilmemesinin gerekliligi vurgulanmaktadir. [EN] This study provides a summary of core inflation indicators for Turkey and a brief discussion on their economic and statistical properties. Moreover, the performance of these core indicators are evaluated with respect to three popular criteria designed to assess the informativeness and the predictive power of these series for the analysis of headline inflation. While all indicators satisfy these criteria; the performance of SATRIM (which is an indicator constructed by using statistical methods) is worth mentioning with its predictive power of future inflation. Moreover, in terms of historical average, Fcore indicator (factor model based core inflation), seems to be closer to headline CPI inflation than the other indicators. H and I indicators, on the other hand, are more tractable and easily replicable. Overall, since each indicator has its own advantage and the response of each indicator to various types of shocks differs depending on the type of the shock, no single measure should be regarded solely as the unique core inflation indicator.

Date: 2011
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